Tag Archive: Outlook

September Weather Summary, Hurricane Nate and the Last Quarter Outlook

September Weather Summary, Hurricane Nate and the Last Quarter Outlook

National Weather Service summary of rainfall estimates across the Florida Panhandle in September 2017.

September was an unusually dry month across much of the Panhandle, considering we were all watching Tropical Storm Irma so closely.  You can see the red streaks where the outer-bands of Irma swung around on the eastern part of the region.  Leon, Liberty, Gadsden, Jackson, and Holmes Counties did get a boost from Tropical Storm Irma rainfall bands( red 5-10″), but most of the region was well below average for the month of September.  Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties were much drier than normal,  with some areas receiving less than 2″ (green) in September.

Rainfall measured in September 2017 at the six FAWN stations in the Florida Panhandle.

All six of the Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations in the Panhandle recorded below historic average rainfalls for September 2017 (-0.5″ to -4.7″).  Jay was the driest location with only 0.8″ for the month, while 3.8″ was the highest total recorded in Marianna.  For the entire year however, the Jay station still has the highest total of 53″, while only 37″ of rainfall has been recorded in Monticello in 2017.  Through September, Monticello is 10.6″ below average thus far in 2017.

Temperatures did cool off a little in September.  The average air temperature dropped from 80° in August to 76° in September.  The average soil temperature dropped 5° from 88° in August to 83° in September.  The high temperature for the month was 94° on September 28 & 29.  The low was 60° on September 10, 11, & 12.  For a complete summary of daily temperatures and rainfall, download:  2017 Jan-Sept Weather Summary.  

Short Term Outlook for Hurricane/ Tropical Storm Nate

The major weather news this week is Hurricane Nate.  This was one of those storms that just seemed to pop up, rather than a long track streaming across the ocean.  Early preliminary forecasts placed the center of the storm track right through the heart of the Panhandle.  The current Forecast track is further west, but the western Panhandle Counties may well have some impact from this storm.

Nate is expected to be a much weaker storm than Irma was, but there will be significant rainfall right at the peak of peanut and cotton harvest.  Most of the state of Alabama will certainly be affected, as well as the western Panhandle Counties in Florida.  Farmers in Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia Counties can expect 2-4″ in the next 72 hours.

Wind may also be an issue, especially in western most counties of Florida. There is a pretty high probability of at least 40 mph wind gust across Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties.   Between the wind and rain, there are going to be cotton fields damaged that have yet to be harvested across the cotton belt.  For preparation tips for your farm review: Hurricane Preparation for Your Farm

Last Quarter Weather Outlook

The seasonal forecast for the last quarter of the year has changed considerably since last month.  The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has officially issued a La Niña Watch, which would  mean warmer and drier than normal weather for the Southeastern states.

Over the last month, equatorial sea surface temperatures were near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.  The most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.  Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.  Climate Prediction Center

The CPC’s graphic 3-month outlook above reflects their changes in expectations from a coming La Niña .  This latest forecast may also mean another mild winter, which is not good for reducing insect population such as white flies, thrips and other key crop pests.

The AgroClimate fact sheet,  Impacts on Agriculture of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Southeastern U.S., provides some guidance on how the two ENSO phases ( El Niño/La Niña) affect crops of different types.  For irrigated winter vegetables, the warmer and drier weather can be positive with less cold damage and less fungal disease pressure.  For cool-season forages this may not be a good year to invest in overseeding of perennial pastures, and instead focus on open land behind annuals crops with less competition for moisture.  Depending on how strong the La Niña influence is and how long it persists, dry conditions could delay planting of early spring dryland crops such as corn, melons, and annual warm season forages.

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2017/10/06/september-weather-summary-hurricane-nate-and-the-last-quarter-outlook/

August Weather Summary & Harvest Outlook

August Weather Summary & Harvest Outlook

August was another rainy month across the Panhandle, but there was a wide variation in rainfall across the region.  The western counties had large areas with 10-15 inches (hot pink) and even some areas nearer to the coast with more than 15″.  The eastern counties were much drier, except along the coast with a range of 5-10″ (red), but there were isolated locations that had less than 5″ (tan).  As hard as it may be for farmers in Escambia, or Santa Rosa to believe, it got pretty dry in parts of Leon and Gadsden Counties in August.Florida showed up for the first time since June 20 in the U.S. Drought Monitor.  Quite a number of Southwest Georgia counties just to the north of Gadsden and Leon were moved into the Abnormally dry category at the end of August.

FAWN Weather Summary

The Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations also showed the variation in rainfall for the month of August.  The highest rainfall total was recorded in Jay with 9.6″ in August, with DeFuniak recording 9.5″.  Marianna was the driest location with only 4.5″.  Only the Marianna station recorded less than historic average for the month of August.  The average for all six stations was 8.0″ in August.

Through the first eight months, the Jay station has recorded 52.5″ in 2017, while only 33.9″ were recorded in Monticello.  All six stations averaged 43.5″ thus far for the year.  For the year, both Quincy and Monticello have recorded less than historic average for the first eight months of the year.  The Monticello location is 8.4″ below historic average for rainfall.

Soil temperatures heated up by one degree from an average of 87° in July to 88° in August.  The average air temperature held at 80°.  The high for the month was 96° on August 20 and 25, with the low of 62° on August 1. For daily temperature and rainfall records, Use the following link:  2017 Jan-Aug Weather Summary

Harvest Weather Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center is expecting above average temperatures and rainfall from September through November.  The latest projections call for 73% chance of warmer than normal temperatures and a 66% chance of higher than normal rainfall over the next three months.  It does not appear that the perfect harvest experienced in 2016 will return in 2017, but rainfall during this three-month period is historically lower than other months.  Certainly everyone needs to pay close attention to the tropics.  A major storm the size of Hurricane Irma could wreak havoc on peanut and cotton harvest for a large area.

ENSO Phase Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center is pretty clear in their forecast that they do not expect an El Niño this winter.  Neutral conditions currently exist and should continue.  Here is an excerpt from their latest ENSO phase outlook:

ENSO-Neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-Neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during Dec-Feb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18  Climate Prediction Center

So what does this forecast mean for area farmers?  Forecasters are not expecting influence from Pacific Ocean winds and weather to affect the US this fall and winter.  Farmers planning for cool-season crops can expect normal rainfall with no influence from Pacific Ocean ENSO phases.  If you go back in history, however, you will see that many of the ENSO neutral years were the ones with the hardest freezes and lowest temperatures.   In the end it is expected to be a normal winter, but what is normal lately?  It has been a number of years since there has been a normal weather in the Panhandle of Florida.  Maybe 2017-18 will get cold enough to reduce populations of whiteflies and other pests.

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2017/09/08/august-weather-summary-harvest-outlook/

July Weather Summary and August Outlook

July Weather Summary and August Outlook

National Weather Service estimates of rainfall in July 2017 across the Panhandle.

Rainfall

July was more typical than the previous month with scattered summer showers that were anything but uniform.  For the most part, coastal areas received higher totals than further inland.  While there were isolated areas in hot pink that received over 10″ for the month, most of the region ranged from 3-8″.

The six Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations also recorded considerable variation in rainfall totals.  The wettest location was in Marianna, with 6.8″, while only 2.5″ were recorded in Jay.  The Marianna station was the only one that recorded above historic average for the location in July.  For the year, the six station average of 35.5″ is right at the historic average for all six locations.  Only the Monticello and Quincy stations have recorded less than historic average through the first seven months.  The Jay station still has the highest yearly total with 42.9″, and the Monticello station the lowest total of only 26.9″.

Temperature

Temperatures certainly heated up in July with five days reaching a high of 94° (July 4,5,6,20,& 21).  The cold front that passed through at the close of the month cooled things off with the low of 67° on July 31.  The average air temperature rose three degrees from 77° in June to 80° in July, and the average soil temperature rose five degrees from 82° to 87°.

For a daily summary of temperatures and rainfall, use the following link: 17 Jan-July Jackson County Weather Summary

August Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is expecting the warming trend to continue in August with higher than normal temperatures for this region.  Normal rainfall is expected for the month.

ENSO Alert

CPC forecasters are still expecting a neutral winter, but there is still a chance of an El Nino (35-40%).  It is still too early to call it yet, so we will have to wait to find out.  At this point, farmers and ranchers should plan on a normal rainfall for their cool-season crops.

Neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. ENSO-Neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.  Climate Prediction Center
PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2017/08/05/july-weather-summary-and-august-outlook/

December Weather Summary and January Outlook

National Weather Service estimates of rainfall across the Panhandle in December 2016.

December brought quite a change from the previous months of drought.  The National Weather Service estimates for rainfall ranged from isolated locations with over 15″ (purple), large regions with over 10″ (hot pink), to less than 4″ along the coast of Gulf, Franklin, Wakulla and Jefferson Counties (tan and yellow).

The six Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations also documented the range in rainfall in December, from a low of only 3.3″ in Carrabelle to over 12″ in Marianna and DeFuniak.  All six FAWN stations recorded above historic average for the month of December.  For the year, the wettest location was at the station in Defuniak, with 63.1″ in 2016.  The driest location was at Carrabelle with only 48.4″ for the year.  Certainly the rainfall was not uniform in 2016 with Monticello station recording 4.8″ above historic average, while the other five locations were below average for the year.  The Carrabelle location was unusually dry, 7.4″ below historic average for annual rainfall.

Annual averages don’t tell the whole story.  It is not just how much falls in total, but when it comes.  The chart above shows how three months:  March, August, and December made up for the shortfalls the rest of the year at the Marianna location.  For the record it was an average year of 54″ of rain, but July, October and November were serious drought months.

The high rainfall totals in December did ease the drought through the Panhandle, but not uniformly.  Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty, Bay and Leon, as well as portions of Escambia and Jefferson Counties are still listed in the Moderate Drought category.  This may change in the weeks ahead with all of the rain in early January.

Temperatures did continue to cool off from November to December. The average air temperature dropped 4° from 61° to 57° in December, and the average soil temperate dropped 8°, from 69 down to 61.

January Outlook

The Climate Predication Center’s (CPC) outlook for January calls for warmer and wetter than average.  It does seem as if La Niña has lost some of its grip, which should mean continued improvement of drought conditions, at least in the Panhandle.

The CPC is expecting the drought conditions to continue to improve in the Panhandle region, but not necessarily for the rest of Florida.

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2017/01/07/december-weather-summary-and-january-outlook/

November Weather Summary and Winter Outlook

November Weather Summary and Winter Outlook

National Weather Service estimates of rainfall totals for November 2016.

National Weather Service estimates of rainfall totals for November 2016.

November was a very dry month across the Florida Panhandle.  For a good portion of the region the limited rain that fell came on November 30, the very last day of the month from a single cold front.  For the month, the vast majority of the region received less than 1″ (blue and bright green).  Small pockets had higher totals (dark green), but were still below 2″ in November.

nov-2016-fawn-panhandle-rainfallThe University of Florida’s Florida Automated Weather network (FAWN) has six stations across the Panhandle.  it is clear that the November 30 cold front brought more rain to the western portion of the Panhandle and diminished as it moved east.  The six stations collected an average of 0.6″ for the month of November, with 1.0″ at DeFuniak which was the wettest location, but only 0.2″ at Carrabelle.   For the year thus far, January through November, the station in Monticello has recorded 56.4″ of rain,  which is actually 2″ above historic average for this location.  Much of this extra rain came from Hurricane Hermine.  Only 41.9″ of rain has been collected in Marianna, which is 8″ below historic average for this location.  The average across all six stations was 49.3″, which is more than 5″ below historic average through November.

16-marianna-fawn-rainfall-vs-avgLooking at the monthly rainfall totals compared to historic average is also important.  The chart above shows that, at the Marianna FAWN Station, 15″ of the 42″ total rainfall in 2016 fell in March and August.  The rest of the year was average or well below average for this location. This chart shows why annual rainfall totals don’t always tell the whole story.  While adequate soil moisture was available at planting, crops suffered through the heat of summer with reduced rainfall.  So there were 8″ fewer inches of rain for the year that ended in serious drought.  The record low October rainfall at the Marianna station was 0″ in 1961, and the record low for November was 0.21″ in 1959.  However, the two month total of only 1.02″, in October and November 2016, was the driest October-November on record in the 64 year history of data collected at this location.

11-29-16-drought-monitorThe U.S. Drought Monitor highlights how serious the current drought is across the Southeast.  More of Florida has been categorized as under drought conditions, with severe and extreme drought conditions across much of the Florida Panhandle.  It will take much more rainfall than what little fell with the recent front to improve this status.  The current La Niña has clearly influenced rainfall for the Southeast thus fall.jan-nov-16-marianna-fawn-summaryTemperatures have cooled considerably as compared to October.  The average air temperature dropped from 70° in October to 61° in November, and the average soil temperature dropped 10° from 79° to 69°. While not extreme, there were three nights that dipped below freezing, with a low of 29° on November 21st.  When compared to the high of 86° back on November 3rd, that is a large temperature spread for a single month.

cpc-dec-feb-17-three-month-outlookThe Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) outlook for the next three months is not very encouraging.  Warmer than average temperatures is not such a bad thing, but well below average rainfall is not good at all.

11-17-16-seasonal-drought-outlookAs you can see  the CPC’s Seasonal Drought Outlook through the end of February is not encouraging either.  The one month outlook for December did show some slight improvement, but it does not look like we will see normal rainfall again until Spring.  From both of these graphic forecasts it does not appear that this will be a good year for winter grazing or grain crops.  Certainly fields with better moisture holding capacity would be the best choices, if you do decide to gamble on planting cool season forages or crops.  Sandy, well drained fields could be even more risky.  Who knows what the future will hold, but the best scientific guess does not look favorable at this point.

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2016/12/03/november-weather-summary-and-winter-outlook/

Cotton Marketing News: 2016 Situation Update and 2017 Crop Outlook

Cotton Marketing News:  2016 Situation Update and 2017 Crop Outlook

shurley-header-11-18-16The 2016 US crop may still be somewhat of a question mark but USDA’s November numbers provided clarity on a few things—the crop got smaller in some areas as expected and the crop still got bigger overall.

The North Carolina and South Carolina crops were reduced by a total of 95,000 bales.  The Georgia crop is now closer to being correct after being reduced 150,000 bales and the crop could get a bit smaller in all 3 instances.  But these reductions totaling almost ¼ million bales were more than offset by increases in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas.

US exports are projected at 12 million bales—unchanged from the October estimate.  This is a good level of exports considering that China is expected to limit imports for the second consecutive year.  As of Nov 10, export sales this marketing year total approximately 7.0 million 480-lb equivalent bales—58% of the USDA estimate.  This compares to 47% at this time last year.  Shipments total 2.55 million or 21% of the estimate.  To date, the pace of shipments projects to only 9.2 million bales for the marketing year—but shipments were 17% at this time last year.

China is expected to import (from all sources) 4.5 million bales this crop year compared to 4.41 million last year.  As of 11/10, US export shipments to China totaled approximately 264,400 bales.  Sales totaled approximately 910,000 bales or 20% of China’s expected total imports.

This month’s USDA numbers lowered World cotton Use or demand just slightly to 111.99 million bales.  In the big picture, this number itself is insignificant.  But psychologically, this nervous market will pay close attention to this number.   This is only .65% above last year and less than 2% growth since 2013.

One issue is the “price problem” or loss of market share to man-made fibers due to substitution at the mill.  Other issues are “structural” and reflect change in consumer preference and buying patterns.  Also, part of the decline may be due to cotton production viewed by some as not environmentally friendly and sustainable.  Research, education, and promotion are on-going to improve cotton’s image and develop new fabrics that appeal to the consumer.  These are longer-term solutions, however.

In the near term, if prices are to sustain themselves at the current level or improve, demand must show stability and growth.  Otherwise, price direction will be largely dictated by the supply side—production and production shocks.

USDA’s November projections revised 2016 crop year World ending stocks up by almost 1 million bales.  This was largely the result of a 300K bale increase in beginning stocks (carry-in from the 2015 crop year) and 590K increase in production.  The increase in carry-in was due to revisions in production and Use from the 2015 crop year.  Higher production is now projected for India along with the US—although the India increase is now questionable.  The China crop stands at 21 million bales compared to 22 million last year and 30 million in 2014.

shurley-11-21-16-chartChina will have another round of reserve sales in 2017.  Sales exceeded 12 million bales in 2016.  Sales, plus lower production, and stable/slight increase in Use is projected to trim total stocks by 10.1 million bales by end of the 2016 crop year.

Questions are whether or not reserve sales and pace of sales will match that of this year and whether or not, as sales dig deeper into the stockpile, fiber quality will become a factor.

Important!

March 17 futures advanced sharply this week, based on cold weather forecast here in the US, and on reports that both the China and India crops may be lowered.  Prices are back above 70 cents—giving growers a good pricing opportunity.  Opinion is already circulating that US acreage will be up for 2017.  December 17 futures are also slightly above 70 cents—representing an early risk-management opportunity on at least a small portion of expected production.

Don Shurley – donshur@uga.edu

shurely-signature-blockCotton News Sponsor

 

 

 

 

 

PG

Author: admin – webmaster@ifas.ufl.edu

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Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2016/12/03/cotton-marketing-news-2016-situation-update-and-2017-crop-outlook/

October Weather Summary and Three Month Outlook

October Weather Summary and Three Month Outlook

Source: National Weather Service estimates for rainfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Source: National Weather Service estimates for rainfall in the Florida Panhandle.

October Summary

October is historically one of the driest months of the year in the Florida Panhandle.  Much of the western portion of the Panhandle, however, was “O-for-October,” with little to no rainfall this year.  Northern Jefferson County did receive more than 3″ of rain (tan) in October, but the majority of the region had less than 0.25″ (light blue) for the month.

oct-2016-fawn-panhandle-rainfallThe University of Florida’s Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations recorded limited rainfall in the month of October as well.  The highest total rainfall in October was recorded at the Monticello Station with only 0.9″, while both the Jay and Carrabelle stations did not record any rainfall for the month at all.  The average for all six stations was only 0.3″, which is more than 3″ below average.  For the year the Monticello station had the highest total with 56.1″ through the first 10 months of 2016, which is almost 5″ above historic average for this location.  The driest location remained Marianna with only 41.1″ for the year, which was 5.6″ below average for that location.  To date, only the Monticello and Quincy stations have recorded above historic average rainfall for the year.

Source: National Drought Monitor

Source: National Drought Monitor

Drought conditions in the Southeast grew even worse in October.  The drought that has been so severe in northern Alabama and Georgia has expanded into the Florida Panhandle.  It has been several years since the Panhandle has been in the moderate drought category of the Drought Monitor.

oct-16-marianna-fawn-summaryTemperatures did moderate some in October, but it was certainly warmer than normal as was forecasted.  Average air temperatures fell 7° from 77° in September to 70° in October, while soil temperatures dipped 5° from 86° down to 76°.  This was 2° warmer for the average air temperature and 5° warmer average soil temperature than last year.

La Niña Watch is Back On

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is once again forecasting a La Niña winter.  All summer there has been debate about a potential for a warmer and dryer winter based on the development of a La Niña this coming fall and winter.  In late summer the CPC called off the watch, but conditions in the Pacific Ocean have changed.  The following is their latest forecast:
ENSO-Neutral conditions were observed during September, with negative sea surface temperatures anomalies expanding across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean by early October. All of the Niño regions cooled considerably during late September and early October.  La Niña is favored to develop (~70% chance) during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2016 and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) during winter 2016-17.  Climate Prediction Center

Looking Ahead – 3 Month Forecast

climate-prediction-center-nov-16-jan-17-outlookThe outlook for the next three months is not very encouraging for cool-season forage or crop production. The CPC is predicting warmer than average temperatures and well below average rainfall from November though January.  Clearly the forecast images above and the drought forecast below are showing the impact of the anticipated La Niña.

nov-january-17-drought-outlookNot only is the current situation serious but is forecasted to continue into the winter months.  It does not look encouraging for winter grazing, or whea or oat grain production this year.  Livestock producers counting on winter grazing for supplementation may be required to invest in additional purchased hay and by-product feeds, if pastures are already planted.  Producers who have been waiting on rain to plant, may want to return seed and exchange them for supplements.  All indications are that the months ahead will remain drier than normal. Hopefully things will improve in 2017.

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2016/11/05/october-weather-summary-and-three-month-outlook/

August Weather Summary, Hurricane Hermine, & September Outlook

Rainfall estimates for August 2016 from the National Weather Service.

Rainfall estimates for August 2016 from the National Weather Service.

For much of the Panhandle August was an improvement over July with more adequate rainfall scattered across the region.  Portions of the coastal counties received over 10″ (hot pink), while there were a number of inland pockets that received less than 4″ (tan).  Most of the region’s rainfall ranged from 5-8″ for the month, based on National Weather Service estimates.

Rainfrall data collected at 6 FAWN stations across the Panhandle. The data collected at the six Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations also show the variation in rainfall in the Panhandle for the month of August.  After three straight months of below average rainfall, the Carrabelle station recorded 11.3″ of rain in August 2016.  In contrast, less than 4″ of rainfall was recorded in Monticello and Jay. The six station average was 6.7″ for the month of August.   For the year, Marianna has been the driest location with less than 37″, while the DeFuniak station has recorded a total of almost 48″.  The six station average through 8 months was 42.8″.

16 Aug Marianna FAWN SummaryTemperatures cooled only slightly in August as compared to July.  The average air temperature cooled only one degree from 81 to 80, and the average soil temperature fell two degrees from 89 to 87.  For specific daily temperature and rainfall data, download:  2016 Jan-Aug FAWN Weather Summary

8-30-16 SE Drought MonitorHurricane Hermine

Hurricane Hermine certainly got everyone’s attention in the Panhandle and South Georgia this week as it grew stronger moving through the Gulf.  Damage reports are still coming in from the coastal communities hit hardest by storm surge, power outages, and high winds.  There is a silver lining to this storm, however.  The graphic above is the Drought Monitor for the Southeast on Tuesday, August 30 before the storm came ashore.  As you can see much of Georgia and South Carolina were in real need of rainfall.

NWS estaimates of rainfall totals for the past 48 hours at 2:00 PM Eastern time 9/2/16

NWS estimates of rainfall totals for the past 48 hours at 2:00 PM Eastern time 9/2/16

The graphic above is the estimated rainfall totals from the past 48 hours.  Interestingly the rainfall total was higher in Tampa and Cedar Key than in Jefferson and Taylor Counties, where the eye of the storm made landfall.  The other thing that is truly remarkable was the High-Pressure wall that guided this huge spinning top of a storm.  You can clearly see how the storm was pushed eastward on a pretty distinct line.

September Outlook

Climate Prediction Center Sept 16 OutlookThe month ahead was expected to be hotter and dryer than normal.  The climate Prediction Center actually changed their outlook this week to show Hurricane Hermine’s influence, so the eastern Panhandle is expected to end the month above average.  As peanut and cotton harvest is not far off, it does appear as if farmers will have better weather conditions than last year at harvest.  But that will depend greatly on whether tropical systems emerge in the Gulf from now through November.

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2016/09/03/august-weather-summary-hurricane-hermine-september-outlook/

July Weather Summary and Harvest Weather Outlook

July Weather Summary and Harvest Weather Outlook

National Weather Service estimates for July 2016 rainfall.

National Weather Service estimates for July 2016 rainfall.

Typically, July in the Florida Panhandle is the wettest month of the year with 6-7″ of rainfall.  In the graphic above, areas that are hot pink or dark red did receive over 6″ in July, but this was not the case for many central and eastern counties.  The regions highlighted in tan and yellow had less than 4″ of rainfall in July.

16 Jan-July Panhandle FAWN Summary revisedThe Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations in the Panhandle showed the variation across the Panhandle as well. Only the Jay station was above historic average for the month of July.  For the first seven months of 2016, only the Monitcello, Quincy, and Jay stations were above averages for those locations.  Thanks to field data collected in March and April, we have some data for the Quincy station to replace the data lost with the bad gauge.  The Marianna station has recorded only 29″ through July, nearly 5″ below average for the year.  Carrabelle has recorded the lowest rainfall totals for the year, with less than 27″ of rain, more than 4″ below historic average for that location.

16 July Marianna FAWN SummaryTemperatures were slightly hotter than in June.  The average air temperature climbed to 81° and the average soil temperature to 89°.  There were five days that the 6′ air temperature was above 95°, and the soil temperature rose above 100° in early July.  To view daily temperature and rainfall totals from the Marianna FAWN station, download:  2016 Jan-July Weather Summary.

3 Month Outlook

CPC 16 Aug-Oct OutlookThe three month outlook provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for above average temperatures over the next three months across the Southeast.  The CPC is forecasting below average rainfall for much of the Southeast, but left the Florida Panhandle out of that zone prediction.  It does appear that Panhandle farmers can expect the heat to continue for several more months.

La Niña Watch

Last month the Climate Prediction Center provided the following report on July 14th:

ENSO-neutral conditions were observed during the past month.  Many models favor La Niña by the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, continuing during fall and lasting into winter.  Statistical models predict a later onset time (i.e., mid-fall) than dynamical models, and also predict a relatively weaker event. The forecaster consensus is somewhat of a compromise between the two model types, favoring La Niña onset during the August-October season, and predicting a weak event, if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail and La Niña is favored to develop by August – October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.  Climate Prediction Center

What does a La Niña mean for agriculture in the Panhandle?  Typically ENSO phases have the greatest impact from November through March, but can have affects earlier and later in the year.  In a La Niña phase, Panhandle weather is warmer and dryer than normal.  The AgroClimate website has a full discussion of typical ENSO phase impacts on different types of crops, but in general, small grains, winter cover crops, and winter forage yields are lower, but summer crops can benefit from reduced pests and diseases. The CPC is predicting a 55-60% chance of a weak La Niña for the 2016-17 cool season, so growers should keep an eye on this forecast as we move closer to the time for cools season crop and pasture planting decisions.

The following are examples of average yield data for wheat and peanuts during the three ENSO phases:

Source: AgroClimate

Source: AgroClimate

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2016/08/05/july-weather-summary-and-harvest-weather-outlook/

May and T.S. Colin Weather Summary and Summer Outlook

National Weather Service estimates for rainfall across the Florida Panhandle in May 2016.

National Weather Service estimates for rainfall across the Florida Panhandle in May 2016.

May Rainfall

May was a more typical rainfall month for the Panhandle with El Niño disappearing.  In the graphic above you can see that only small portions of northern Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties received more than 8″ for the month, while the areas in green less than 2″.  Most of the region ranged from 2-5″ in May 2016.

16 May Panhandle FAWN Rainfall 2The Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations recorded rainfall in May that ranged from a low of 1.7″ at the Marianna station to a high of 3.7″ in Monticello.  Only the Monticello station recorded rainfall totals above historic averages for these six locations.  All six stations average 2.5″ for May 2016.

Through the first five months of 2016, the five stations averaged 25.3″ (Quincy had a gauge error in parts of March and April).  Monticello had the highest rainfall total so far in 2016 with a total of 28.6″, and the lowest total of 20.3″ was recorded at the Carrabelle station.  All 5 stations averaged 25.3″ from January through May.  Only the Marianna site was slightly below average for the year, with the Monticello almost 6″ above the historic average for this location.

May Temperatures

16 May Marianna FAWN Summary

Temperatures climbed up significantly in May, with an average air temperature of 73 and an average soil temperature of 82.  The data gathered at the Marianna station shows the wide variation of temperatures, however, ranging from a low of 48° to a high of 94° in May.

Tropical Storm Colin

Rainfall that came the first week of June associated with Tropical Storm Colin.

Rainfall that came the first week of June associated with Tropical Storm Colin.

In most of the Panhandle, Tropical Storm Colin brought much needed rain for the region.  While not included in the weekly drought monitor, most of the Panhandle was starting to really dry out. The areas around Tallahassee, Gainesville, Palatka, and Tampa received more than 7″ with this storm, but most of North Florida had 2-5″ over the past week.

FAWN 7-day rainfall data the first week of June with Tropical Storm Colin.

FAWN 7-day rainfall data the first week of June with Tropical Storm Colin.

The FAWN stations show how some areas of Florida had much higher rainfall totals associated with this storm than most of the Panhandle.  The Bronson FAWN station recorded 9.9″, Putnam Hall 9.1″, Monticello 8.1″, and Dover 7″ over the past seven days.

Summer Outlook

Climate Prediction Center's outlook for June through August weather.

Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for June through August weather.

The climate prediction center is expecting temperatures to climb up over the next three months, but makes no projection for rainfall in the Southeast.

El Niño to La Niña

The 2015-16 El Niño is officially over.  There is still a good chance of a weak to moderate La Niña developing this summer or fall, but as of right now the official stage is neutral.  La Niña may bring good news for crop harvest this year, but may not be as favorable for winter crop and forage production.

El Niño dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned in May.   ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.  Climate Prediction Center

 

PG

Author: Doug Mayo – demayo@ufl.edu

Lead Editor for Panhandle Ag e-news – Jackson County Extension Director – Livestock & Forages Agent. My true expertise is with beef cattle and pasture management, but I can assist with information on other livestock species, as well as recreational fish ponds.
http://jackson.ifas.ufl.edu

Doug Mayo

Permanent link to this article: http://franklin.ifas.ufl.edu/newsletters/2016/06/11/may-and-t-s-colin-weather-summary-and-summer-outlook/

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